3. No. One way it could play out: after a tentative start involving lots of trading stops, bitcoin futures will slowly begin to attract institutional money. Commodity Futures Trading Commission positioning data will reflect the extraordinary long bias that exists for the product among money managers. As the huge cost of rolling futures positions becomes self-evident, longs will complain ever more loudly about routine divergences around settlement time. Just as a senate hearing is being scheduled to investigate potential manipulation of the market, futures prices will fall below spot, initiating a sell-off.
Adding to the growing literature of sell-side analysts who think the answer to Apple's (AAPL) market valuation woes (down 35% since September) is a low-cost iPhone, MorganStanley's Katy Huberty has looked at China, the world's largest smartphone market, and done the math.